“The end is near!” No, I am not talking about the end of the world (I hope!). I am talking about the securitized investment /cdo debacle which has precipitated this monumental drop in value in the real estate market.
Are we near the bottom? While I do not know any respected real estate investor or financial guru who is willing to call it – you must wonder?! Last week the Bank of Australia decided to mark their paper down to 10 cents on the dollar. Today, Merrill Lynch has tried to draw a line in the sand at 22 cents on the dollar. THESE FOLKS WANT THIS PROBLEM BEHIND THEM! It will still take months and even years to reconcile this mess – but at least these lenders are finally admitting… “I can not tell a lie. It was I who cut down the cherry tree.”
As a real estate investor, now is the time. Get your financial ammunition loaded up and get ready to fire. Whether you are a onesy-twosey, or blind or specified pool type, take heart. The end is near…
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Friday, July 18, 2008
Now that really is a Surprise!
There are certain players that you expect to be around - even flourish - in this declining real estate market. It appears, however, that we should take nothing for granted.
Two of the largest national distressed real estate auction houses have hit troubled waters. And a third - the biggest - may be laying off staff. Why? Well, if you have been to an auction you know what it is not. These operations are very successful at what they do - getting people to commit to buying a property at the best price possible for the seller. So what is it? In my humble opinion - the buyers who commit cannot perform! They can not close the deal - be it lack of financing or appraisal hangups, or just changes of heart.
So now we have great deals out there - and no buyers. What's next? Watch out - here comes the RTC Freight Train!
Two of the largest national distressed real estate auction houses have hit troubled waters. And a third - the biggest - may be laying off staff. Why? Well, if you have been to an auction you know what it is not. These operations are very successful at what they do - getting people to commit to buying a property at the best price possible for the seller. So what is it? In my humble opinion - the buyers who commit cannot perform! They can not close the deal - be it lack of financing or appraisal hangups, or just changes of heart.
So now we have great deals out there - and no buyers. What's next? Watch out - here comes the RTC Freight Train!
Friday, July 04, 2008
San Diego Foreclosure News!
I have tracked trustee sales (sales on the courthouse steps ) for the last year – watching for the avalanche of foreclosures we have all been anticipating.
There has been a marked increase in these filings the last couple of weeks. Yesterday, my weekly list had near 800 properties! Compare that to 155 a year ago – July 2007. This is a 500% increase in properties for sale coming on to the market. There is a noticeable upward bias to the east and north county neighborhoods, too.
This must be the feeling an astronaut has as he sits on the launch pad and hears “10, 9, 8, 7….”
These numbers are shocking, even to me. Clearly, we are in a buyers market. My advice is to avoid being a seller. If you must sell, have an iron clad, multi-pronged exit strategy.
There has been a marked increase in these filings the last couple of weeks. Yesterday, my weekly list had near 800 properties! Compare that to 155 a year ago – July 2007. This is a 500% increase in properties for sale coming on to the market. There is a noticeable upward bias to the east and north county neighborhoods, too.
This must be the feeling an astronaut has as he sits on the launch pad and hears “10, 9, 8, 7….”
These numbers are shocking, even to me. Clearly, we are in a buyers market. My advice is to avoid being a seller. If you must sell, have an iron clad, multi-pronged exit strategy.
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